The US Drive to Stem China’s Tech Rise Is Stalling
Chinese automaker BYD’s Yuan Pro EV at a launch event in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Sept. 5.
Photographer: Maira Erlich/BloombergAre US efforts to stymie China’s technological rise working? Not really.
The world’s No. 2 economy is charging ahead in many of the 13 key technologies President Xi Jinping outlined nearly a decade ago as a priority for his country’s development, according to a 48-page report from analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence and Bloomberg Economics.
Though public mentions of Xi’s flagship Made in China 2025 program may have fallen in recent years, the industrial policy blueprint intended to make the nation a leader in emerging tech has largely been successful, the research shows.
Electric vehicles, high-speed rail and solar panels are among the five areas where China has achieved global leadership positions, while it’s catching up fast in another seven sectors. In much of the world, Chinese-made smartphones are ubiquitous.
And US curbs haven’t diminished the appetite among private firms to secure poll position in international markets. BYD, China’s top automaker, is producing and selling cars abroad despite US tariffs of 102.5%. A top executive said she expects overseas deliveries to account for almost half of total sales in the future.
But the US is having some success in preventing China’s development of high-end semiconductors, the foundation for many of the other technologies. Beijing is now struggling to access and manufacture the most advanced chips for use in artificial intelligence and military systems.
Even so, the American export controls are spurring Beijing to redouble efforts to achieve breakthroughs in semiconductor technology. While it still lags the US, Chinese firms have surprised policymakers with their progress in recent years.
All that is a problem for whoever wins next week’s US election.
Beijing’s success so far and persistence to catch up shows the limits of Donald Trump’s plan to intensify tariffs and Vice President Kamala Harris’ continuation of export controls and sanctions.
A tough stance on China may be the only issue that unites both candidates, but it’s one that may end up isolating the US around the world.— Rebecca Choong Wilkins